Dynamic hurricane season predicted for Atlantic in 2025

The Atlantic hurricane season is fast approaching, and early indications have forecasters worried that it will have similarities to the 2024 season, which was one of the most devastating and costliest on record.

"Super-charged" encapsulates the ferocity of last year's deadly hurricane season. Beryl entered the record books as the earliest Category 5 on record, Helene pummeled the Southeast with biblical rain and flooding, and Milton tore across Florida with deadly flooding and dozens of tornadoes.

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva warns it could be another year with volatile hurricanes, with the season officially starting on Sunday, June 1.

Keys to the hurricane forecast

One of the biggest factors for tropical development in 2025 is the abundance of warm water available to fuel storms. Water temperatures across the ocean, as well as in the Gulf and Caribbean, are already well above historical averages, and they will continue to run warm throughout most of the year. This will prime storms for explosive development.

"A rapid intensification of storms will likely be a major story yet again this year as sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content (OHC) across most of the basin are forecast to be well above average," DaSilva said. The OHC measures not only the temperature of the water but also how deep the warm water extends. A deep pool of warm water provides much more fuel for hurricanes than a shallow layer of warmth near the ocean's surface.

One of the devastating trends in recent years has been hurricanes tapping into unusually warm water and quickly strengthening shortly before making landfall. During the 2022 season, Ian rapidly intensified from a 120-mph Category 3 to a 160-mph Category 5 as it approached Florida, causing storm surge to become catastrophic in coastal communities, with water levels cresting higher than single-story buildings.

Water temperatures near the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean will also be important, as this is the area that can spawn La Niña and El Niño. Although these phenomenons take place in the Pacific, they have far-reaching effects that can boost or suppress tropical activity across the Atlantic.

Neither is expected to be present during the first half of the season, but that could change by September, October, or November.

"A trend toward a La Niña could yield an active end to the season, while a trend toward El Niño could lead to an earlier end to the season," DaSilva explained.

How many hurricanes and tropical storms are predicted for 2025?

"AccuWeather is forecasting near to above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and direct impacts to the United States," DaSilva said.

Between 13 and 18 named storms are expected in 2025, including 7-10 hurricanes, three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher, and three to six direct U.S. impacts. DaSilva added that there is a 20 chance of more than 18 named storms this year.

Meteorologists gauge an entire season by analyzing accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). This measures the combined intensity of every tropical system throughout the season, with weak, short-lived storms producing little ACE while powerful, long-lived hurricanes generating a high amount.

For the 2025 hurricane season, AccuWeather is predicting an ACE of 125 to 175, above the 30-year historical average of 123, and around the level measured during the 2024 season.

DaSilva added that the upcoming season could get off to a fast start, including the chance for a named storm to develop before the season officially starts on June 1. He added that there could be a lull in activity following early-season storms, but it could be capped off by a busy end to the year. This would be similar to last year, when 13 of the 18 named storms occurred between September and mid-November.

The peak of the hurricane season typically falls on Sept. 10.

Where storms, hurricanes are most likely to make landfall

"Similar to last year, northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season," DaSilva explained. "Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean are also at an increased risk of direct impacts."

Landfall is just one part of a storm's lifecycle, and last season was a disastrous reminder that hurricanes and tropical storms could have far-reaching impacts, even in states that do not border the ocean or the Gulf.

"We witnessed tragic examples of just how far inland the impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms can reach. Hurricane Beryl spun up more than 60 tornadoes along its nearly 1,200-mile-long path from the Texas coast to upstate New York," DaSilva said. "Hurricane Helene brought catastrophic flash flooding and destructive winds to the mountains of western North Carolina, hundreds of miles inland from where the storm made landfall in Florida."

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DaSilva and the rest of AccuWeather's long-range forecasting team are able to make these predictions with the help of analog years, or years in recent history that had weather patterns similar to what is happening right now around the world. By looking at the past, meteorologists can piece together long-range forecasts with better precision.

AccuWeather identified 12 such analog years, with the 2017 and 2023 seasons being some of the most recent matches. These seasons included notorious storms, including Harvey, which inundated Texas Irma, which blasted part of the Caribbean and South Florida and Idalia, which was one of the strongest of many storms in recent years to barrel into the Big Bend of Florida.

Deep dive: more pivotal players this hurricane season

Several other players could impact the upcoming hurricane season, one of them being the Bermuda-Azores high that is usually parked over the central Atlantic. Winds around this bubble of high pressure direct storms and hurricanes westward across the ocean before curving northward.

"The Bermuda-Azores high position can be offset farther south and east compared to average," DaSilva said. "This can favor a period of re-curving tropical systems in the western Atlantic when the high is weaker and another period of storms reaching the Caribbean and Gulf when the high is stronger."

Depending on how this moves and strengthens throughout the season, it could significantly affect the track of tropical storms and hurricanes moving across the Atlantic.

Another area to watch is not far off the west coast of Africa. Last year, water in this region was cooler than the historical average for a time, resulting in a phenomenon called "Atlantic Niña." This contributed to a lull in tropical activity throughout August and into the start of September.

"It is certainly possible that we see lulls during the tropical season due to an enhancement of dry air if an Atlantic Niña develops," DaSilva said. He added that if water in this area warms up, it could have the opposite effect, enhancing tropical development.

Weather conditions across Africa may also breed more clusters of showers and thunderstorms that move into the Atlantic, known as tropical waves. An increase in these tropical waves can result in an uptick in tropical storms and hurricanes.

Conversely, massive clouds of dry, dusty air carried by the wind from Africa across the Atlantic can periodically limit tropical activity, as the moisture-starved air makes it more challenging for storms to develop and strengthen.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.